Friday, June 6, 2014

The Importance of a Good Forecast

How we need the wisdom of God to navigate the challenges of our lives!  He will teach us the importance of relying on Him and inform us regarding our decisions.  We cannot predict the future, but through His wisdom and our experience, we can anticipate possible outcomes resulting from our actions.   So, we heed Isaiah 55:
6Seek the Lord while He may be found, Call upon Him while He is near.7Let the wicked forsake his way, And the unrighteous man his thoughts; Let him return to the Lord, And He will have mercy on him; And to our God, For He will abundantly pardon.8"For My thoughts are not your thoughts, Nor are your ways My ways," says the Lord.9"For as the heavens are higher than the earth, So are My ways higher than your ways, And My thoughts than your thoughts.

We have access to a wisdom that is not our own and in fact, is far superior to earthly, or human, wisdom. Rather than act impulsively or make decisions on a whim or without careful forethought, God is inviting us to consult with Him, to seek His face, and to get a sense of His very thoughts. He has made powerful resources available to us, and calls us to walk in His ways.  A good forecast can be highly instructive for us, and knowing God's direction can enable us to avoid the negative consequences of uniformed actions.

In Proverbs 16, there are several sentences that can serve to remind us of the sovereignty of God and the importance of surrendering our decisions to him.  Let's start with verses 1-3:
1The preparations of the heart belong to man, But the answer of the tongue is from the Lord.2All the ways of a man are pure in his own eyes, But the Lord weighs the spirits.3Commit your works to the Lord, And your thoughts will be established.And, a companion verse is found in verse 9:9A man's heart plans his way, But the Lord directs his steps.

This is the 70th Anniversary of the Allied invasion of Normandy, marking a turning point in World War II.   But, did you know that the invasion was originally scheduled for June 5th?   But, weather conditions were uncertain, and General Eisenhower's staff meteorologist gave a very wise piece of advice, even though other forecasters disagreed.

USA Today had the story earlier this week.  Group Capt. James Martin Stagg, defied his colleagues, he advised Eisenhower to postpone the invasion by one day.  A new book by author John Ross — "The Forecast for D-Day" — sees that forecast as a pivotal moment in world history.

Ross writes, "A bad forecast would jeopardize the entire operation...If he gave the word to 'go,' and the weather turned sour, the lives of thousands of men and massive amounts of equipment would be lost.  He notes, "If he did not go and the weather was good, Germans might have spied the massive build-up in southern England and the elements of the invasion fleet headed for Normandy. The odds that the Allies' plans would have been discovered would increase exponentially."

Stagg and his fellow British and American meteorologists were operating without any of the technology and equipment that today's forecasters take for granted, such as satellites, weather radar, computer modeling and instant communications.

Ross projects that had the invasion remained June 5, heavy seas, high winds and thick cloud cover from a potent storm centered north of Scotland would likely have caused the invasion to fail and set world history on a different course.

While far from perfect, the weather on the morning of June 6 was good enough for the invasion to proceed successfully.

Had the mission not gone on June 6, the next window would have been a full two weeks later, when tides and moonlight were right. On that day two weeks later, a completely un-forecast gale would have caused the invasion to fail.

Ross said that had the invasion failed, the secrecy about when and where the Allies would land would be lost, victory in Europe would have been delayed for a year, and the Soviet Union might have taken control of the continent.

It's all about processing the facts and making a good forecast.

Predicting the weather can be an imperfect science.  Just witness what meteorologists experienced earlier this year when the snow and ice that had been forecast to miss Birmingham and Atlanta actually barreled into those cities.    

Predicting how things will turn out for us in our lives is next to impossible.  But, it can be instructive for us in our decision-making processes to attempt to project the consequences of our actions.   

For one thing, we know that the outcome of sin is never beneficial.  The Bible mentions the pleasures of sin for a season - because we know that at the end of the season, we will reap what we have sown.  Our sins have consequences, and even though we may not know exactly what may transpire if we participate in ungodly behavior, we can know that there are numerous possible outcomes that could be destructive to our lives.  And, a person can be absolutely convinced that to reject Christ and choose a sinful lifestyle will result in eternal punishment - the wages of sin is death.

We also recognize that careful planning and sound tactics can bring satisfactory outcomes.  The old adage says that if you fail to plan, you plan to fail.  And, that's so true - I don't believe that God calls us to meander haphazardly through life; rather, He desires for us to seek His wisdom, to prayerfully consider options, and to recognize the consequences of our actions.   God will illumine our minds as we intentionally allow Him to set the course for our lives.   And, our experience and the wisdom of the Word can help us make a reasonable forecast of what could happen if we take certain actions.

And, finally, our timing is fallible, but God's timing is perfect.  It's been said that timing is everything.  And, the time to act may not be according to the schedule that we have set.  On D-Day, Eisenhower delayed the invasion by a day because of the weather conditions - he had a good forecast available to him.   If we are impulsive or rush into an activity exclusive of the leadership of the Holy Spirit, we can face the possibility of encountering a negative outcome.   We can train ourselves to wait upon God.

The Word of God and the Spirit of God can help us anticipate what could occur if we make certain decisions - a good forecast can be a wonderful thing!


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