Who Do You Listen To?

A verse that we hear commonly around Christmas can provide us with a reminder of the reality of
Jesus that can help us during difficulty. In Isaiah 9, we can read:
6 For unto us a Child is born, Unto us a Son is given; And the government will be upon His shoulder. And His name will be called Wonderful, Counselor, Mighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace.
7 Of the increase of His government and peace There will be no end, Upon the throne of David and over His kingdom, To order it and establish it with judgment and justice From that time forward, even forever. The zeal of the Lord of hosts will perform this.

Jesus, who is called "Wonderful, Counselor" here, referred to the Holy Spirit as our Counselor in his earthly teaching.  We can know the counsel of Scripture, which can direct and encourage us in our lives.  He wants to show us the way we should walk - every day.  And, He is also called, Prince of Peace, which can remind us of the peace that passes understanding that He gives. Later in Isaiah, the writer says that the mind stayed on God will be kept by Him in perfect peace.  Our Wonderful Counselor and Prince of Peace can give us that perfect peace today.

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There are multiple verses in Proverbs to point to how multiple voices can help to guide us in the right direction.  These include Proverbs 11:14, which states: "Where there is no counsel, the people fall; But in the multitude of counselors there is safety."  And, Proverbs 15:22: "Without counsel, plans go awry, But in the multitude of counselors they are established."

One of the marks of a good leader is to be able to gather information, process it, and take decisive action.  The President within recent days has shown that type of leadership in making the decision to extend the social distancing guidelines another 30 days after yesterday's conclusion of a 15-day period to stop the spread of the Coronavirus.  Contrary to what media outlets and politicians have inferred, Mr. Trump announced his Coronavirus Task Force on January 29, according to the White House website.   Later Vice-President Pence was tapped to head the task force.  A "multitude of counselors" has been formed to provide solid information and analysis.

There has been wildly speculative information that has been circulated.  Last Thursday, task force member Dr. Deborah Birx took aim at studies that have made extreme predictions.  The Hill reported:

Birx, speaking at a White House press briefing, singled out a recent study on the United Kingdom that originally predicted 500,000 people would die from the virus and has since been revised down to predict 20,000 deaths in the U.K. She said the data the government has collected does not show that 20 percent of the U.S. population would be infected with COVID-19, cautioning against predictions that say so.

“When people start talking about 20 percent of a population getting infected, it is very scary but we don’t have data that matches that based on the experience,” Birx said.

“There’s no … reality on the ground where we can see that 60 to 70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks,” Birx later continued.

And, of course, there was Sunday's stunning prediction by Dr. Anthony Fauci that perhaps millions of Americans could become infected and "100,000 to 200,000" could die.  At the press briefing later in the day, he qualified that statement that he made on CNN earlier in the day.  FoxNews.com reported:

In response to a question at the briefing, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, reiterated his estimate from earlier in the day that it remained possible that 100,000 to 200,000 people could die in the United States. "What we’re trying to do is not let that happen," he said, calling the extension of social-distancing guidelines "a wise and prudent decision." Over 2,300 people with the virus already have died in the U.S.

The doctor went on to comment on the reliability of models:

"Models are good, but models often generate the kind of anxious question you asked," Fauci said, when a reporter inquired as to how bad the situation could become. "A model is as good as the assumptions you put into the model, and very often, many of these assumptions are based on a complexity of issues that aren't necessarily the same... from one country to another."

The Federalist called attention to a seemingly popular modeling source less than a week ago, declaring: "A scan of statements made by media, state governors, local leaders, county judges, and more show many relying on the same source, an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now. The website says it is 'built to enable political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling.”"

The article states:

The models are being shared across social media, news reports, and finding their way into officials’ daily decisions, which is concerning because COVID Act Now’s predictions have already been proven to be wildly wrong.

COVID Act Now predicted that by March 19 the state of Tennessee could expect 190 hospitalizations of patients with confirmed Wuhan virus. By March 19, they only had 15 patients hospitalized.

In New York, Covid Act Now claimed nearly 5,400 New Yorkers would’ve been hospitalized by March 19. The actual number of hospitalizations is around 750. The site also claimed nearly 13,000 New York hospitalizations by March 23. The actual number was around 2,500.

Inaccurate predictions were made about Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Virginia, as well.  The Federalist article also states: "Jordan Schachtel, a national security writer, said COVID Act Now’s modeling comes from one team based at Imperial College London that is not only highly scrutinized, but has a track record of bad predictions."  The writer, Madeline Osburn surmises: "Perhaps the goal of COVID Act Now was never to provide accurate information, but to scare citizens and government officials into to implementing rash and draconian measures. The creators even admit as much with the caveat that 'this model is designed to drive fast action, not predict the future.'"

This is not to minimize the threat - this is a dangerous virus and citizens should take the necessary precautions.  But, we do need to make sure that we are getting good, accurate information - in all decisions that we have to make.  It was stated in the White House Rose Garden the other day that the decision was made to extend the social distancing guidelines based on a number of different models.

The Bible talks about seeking counsel from multiple people.  Perhaps you are seeing this with the Coronavirus Task Force.  Even the group's decisions seem to be influenced by an abundance of evidence, or data.  The question for each of us is who or what is governing our decisions.  And, ultimately, we can ask whether or not we are allowing our Wonderful Counselor, who has sent to us His Holy Spirit, to lead us.

Finally, we cannot give in to fear - we will see sobering statistics and hear grim news in the days to come.  But, we can allow our Prince of Peace to become very real in our hearts and minds, allowing us to be confident in the Lord and cautious in our actions.