Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Lessons from Iowa

The news is well-known - Mitt Romney edges Rick Santorum by 8 votes in the Iowa Republican caucus.   Ron Paul finishes a hearty third with 22% of the vote.  Newt Gingrich finishes 4th, followed by Rick Perry, who's going back to Texas to re-evaluate his campaign, Michele Bachmann drops out, and Jon Huntsman sits it out.

Now, let's look at how evangelicals voted:  According to CNN, 58% of those voting indicated in entrance polls that they were evangelical, down from 60% in 2008.   But, their choices were split: 32% for Santorum, 18% went for Ron Paul, 13% each for Romney, Gingrich and Rick Perry, 6% for Michele Bachmann and 1% for Jon Huntsman.

So, there are some storylines emerging out of Iowa:
Romney - the value of consistency...he's been working at it since before 2008, he's not so emotional, stays focused, and has remained at around 25% of the Republican electorate.   That's good, in one respect, but he can't seem to break that threshold and perception of "we are the 25%".
Santorum - the value of hard work...with limited resources and a pickup truck, he's criss-crossed the state and remained hopeful, even though he lost his last election - his re-election attempt to the US Senate by 18% to the son of the former governor of Pennsylvania in a tough election year for GOP candidates.
Paul - the value of passion...he has motivated his supporters, especially young people, who really feel they, and their candidate, can make a difference.
Gingrich - the value of an active mind...Newt's full of ideas, and can articulate them fairly well - but sometimes his ideas have been characterized as off-base, and his intellect has led to periodic arrogance.
Perry - the value of a position...but position isn't everything - he's in his third term as TX Governor, but has proven to be less-than-prepared for the national stage - but he's well-financed and could pick up votes from supporters of...
Bachmann - the value of ideology...she's knowledgable, strong on social issues, and comes across as strident at times...she's pulled out, but I believe will continue to be a challenging force in the GOP and the House.

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